Under the Gun: Military and Paramilitary Actors in Sudan’s Agrifood System
通过50余次访谈，研究了苏丹武装部队和快速支援部队在农业食品系统中的投资策略，揭示其如何通过四种方式与私营部门互动，并关联到2023年武装冲突的政治经济根源。
Armed actors are entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often with implications for agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. This paper focuses on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, the paper traces how these actors gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that their investments in certain value chains depend on whether the formal private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required for more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent-extraction, biased competition through licencing and quota allocations, acquiescence to private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when profit potential is high and the private sector is absent. We demonstrate these strategies with respect to livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Since economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023-armed conflict, identifying these strategies expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.