Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks
研究了劳动力参与、失业和迁移如何响应区域劳动力需求的外生变化，发现迁移是重要的调整机制，五年后约60%的就业增长由人口迁入解释，且20-35岁人群反应最强。
ABSTRACT: We examine the responsiveness of labor participation, unemployment, and labor migration to exogenous variations in labor demand. Our empirical approach considers four instruments for regional labor demand commonly used in the literature. Empirically, we find that labor migration is a significant margin of adjustment for all our instruments. Following an increase in regional labor demand, the initial increase in employment is accounted for mainly by a reduction in unemployment. Over time however, net labor in-migration becomes the dominant factor contributing to increased regional employment. After five years, roughly 60 percent of the increase in employment is explained by the change in population. Responses of labor migration are strongest for individuals age 20–35. Based on historical data back to the 1950s, we find no evidence of a decline in the elasticity of migration to changes in employment.