Analytical Comparison of Supply Chain Collaboration Levels Under Supply and Demand Uncertainty: Decentralized, Centralized, and Vendor-Managed Inventory
本文建立分析模型，比较分散、联合经济批量（JELS）和供应商管理库存（VMI）三种协作政策在供需不确定性下的供应链绩效，并引入盈余共享机制，为企业和政策制定者在数据稀缺时优化供应链提供指导。
This paper examines the impact of varying levels of buyer-supplier collaboration on supply chain (SC) performance under simultaneous demand and supply uncertainty. While collaboration is widely acknowledged as a lever for improving SC performance, prior analytical studies have predominantly focused on coordination mechanisms or contract structures. A gap persists in the literature regarding the quantified comparison of decentralized, partially collaborative, and fully collaborative policies-particularly under epistemic uncertainty, where limited data constrain the applicability of traditional probabilistic models. To address this gap, we develop an analytical model to evaluate three collaboration policies: (i) decentralized, (ii) joint economic lot-sizing, and (iii) vendor-managed inventory (VMI). The model integrates both demand- and supply-side uncertainty using general probability distributions. To capture epistemic uncertainty-common in pandemics, infrastructure disruptions, and other high-impact events-we adopt the PERT-Beta distribution, which is designed for expert-driven planning in data-scarce contexts. We derive closed-form expressions for expected SC surplus and identify conditions under which increasing collaboration improves system-wide performance. A surplus-sharing mechanism is introduced to equitably allocate collaborative gains across dyadic partners. Numerical simulations based on a healthcare case involving personal protective equipment (PPE) illustrate the theoretical findings and provide additional insights into the relative performance of the decentralized, JELS, and VMI policies under different parameter regimes and operating conditions. This study offers a tractable, generalizable model for analyzing SC collaboration under uncertainty and provides actionable insights for firms and policymakers seeking to strengthen SC performance, equity, and service levels during disruptions.