Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression
利用高频行业数据集和双重差分法，评估了1931年英国脱离金本位对出口行业就业的影响，发现货币贬值使出口密集型行业的失业率相对降低2.7个百分点，并刺激了劳动力市场、财政前景和经济增长，成为大萧条复苏的重要初始火花。
This paper evaluates how a major policy shift—the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931—affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industries. At the aggregate level, this effect stimulated the labor market, the fiscal outlook, and economic growth. Devaluation was therefore an important initial spark of recovery from the depths of the Great Depression.