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私人技术创新的公共支持的结-演化理论基础

A structural-evolutionary rationale for public support of private technological innovation

Technological Forecasting and Social Change · 2026
被引 0
ABS 3

中文导读

本文提出一个结构-演化增长理论,论证了在动态竞争和技术不确定性下,公共政策通过历史条件、选择性聚焦和嵌入技术结构来引导私人技术创新,从而促进长期经济增长。

Abstract

Dynamic competition in technological innovation drives long run economic growth. We find a rationale for public support of private technological innovation in features of this process which are central to our appreciative structural-evolutionary growth theory presented here. Agents face uncertainty and allocate resources to innovative endeavors based on subjective perceptions of potential opportunities that are generated by and limited to the evolving structural context in which they operate. Efforts cannot be evaluated on optimality criteria of equilibrium models because much of the value that may come to be associated with originating innovations is yet to be determined over the uncertain futures of their development trajectories. The system's history determines its present and future states. Influencing agent behaviours with respect to technological innovation alters the evolutionary path of economic growth. Policy that is historically conditioned, selectively focused and embedded in the structure of technology and the economy induces beneficial technological innovation trajectories. This role is absent from the equilibrium approach to economic growth theory in which fully-informed agents allocate resources based on calculations of optimal returns, producing growth on a stationary balanced growth path. In this approach, policy's sole purpose is the correction of divergence between social and private returns.

经济增长技术创新公共政策演化经济学