The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia
在埃塞俄比亚偏远农村开展随机对照试验，通过播放励志纪录片提升贫困人口的志向，五年后发现他们在农业、教育和资产方面的未来导向投资显著增加，表明轻触式行为干预能产生持久经济影响。
Abstract Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomised control trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention which aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations and, through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and serve as relatable role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households had increased future-oriented investments in agriculture, children’s education and assets. The results can be explained by an increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.