Broken Promises: Evaluating an Incomplete Start-Up Business Program
研究了南苏丹一个因冲突而终止的商业贷款项目对预期受益者的社会经济、行为和心理影响，发现未获得贷款的参与者消费显著下降，对机构的信任也大幅降低。
Abstract This study examines the socio-economic, behavioral, and psychological consequences of a terminated business loan program in South Sudan on intended beneficiaries. While all participants received business training, only some were able to obtain the promised loan before the program was canceled due to renewed conflict. The study combines data from face-to-face interviews and data from lab experiments to examine outcomes one year after the program’s cancellation. Results from local average treatment effect (LATE) estimations show that those participants who failed to receive the loan display significant declines in consumption. Moreover, this group exhibits a significant reduction in trust, particularly trust in institutions. These results highlight that more attention should be given to the detrimental effects of implementation failures.