The Trump effect: Readiness 2030, SAFE, and the German debt brake reform
特朗普重返美国总统后，欧盟触发稳定与增长公约的国家保障条款，允许成员国四年内国防支出不受赤字规则限制；德国也修宪允许年度国防支出超过GDP的1%，突破了宪法债务刹车。
The return of Donald Trump to the US Presidency in 2025 has dramatically impacted the EU’s fiscal framework. In response to Trump's aims to disengage the US from guaranteeing the security of Europe, the EU has triggered the national safeguard clause of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the centerpiece of the EU fiscal rules, reformed in 2024 after three years of suspension because of the pandemic. The decision exempts member states, for four years, from complying with the EU deficit rules for defense expenditures. At the same time, Germany, the member state championing fiscal stability, ditched decades of commitment to Schwarze null and passed a constitutional amendment which enables annual spending of over 1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in derogation of the Schuldebremse, the constitutional debt brake (formally remained operative for the other spending). The Trump effect thus led the EU to set aside EU and national fiscal rules again to increase defense spending. The outcome is an EU operating in a sort of fiscal limbo.