The Dollar during the Great Recession: The Information Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and the “Flight to Safety”
研究发现大衰退期间美国前瞻指引宽松政策反而导致美元升值，归因于其释放经济疲软信号引发避险效应和通胀预期下降，并构建模型解释这一现象。
ABSTRACT Conventional wisdom holds that lowering a home country's interest rate relative to another's will depreciate the domestic currency. We document that, at business‐cycle frequencies, U.S. forward guidance monetary policy easings had the opposite effect during the Great Recession. We attribute this effect to calendar‐based forward guidance that signaled economic weakness, resulting in a “flight‐to‐safety” effect and lower expected U.S. inflation. We also document cross‐currency heterogeneity: a surprise U.S. rate cut induced a larger appreciation of the dollar against currencies that typically depreciate more when the world economy is contracting. We build a model that can reconcile these findings.