Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition
研究发现，各国生育率差异与人力资本、人均GDP和死亡率等经典理论预测一致，但过去60年国家内部生育率下降与这些因素的改善关联较弱。本文聚焦婚姻和继承习俗等家庭制度，结合文化规范扩散，解释生育率下降的时间、速度和幅度差异。
Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.