Foreign Currency as a Barrier to International Trade: Evidence from Brazil
利用巴西和阿根廷2008年引入的双边支付系统消除美元作为中介货币这一自然实验，研究发现采用本币结算显著提升了出口额，表明对外币的依赖是新兴市场贸易的重要障碍。
Abstract This paper studies the causal effect of foreign currency dependence on international trade by exploiting Brazil and Argentina's 2008 introduction of a bilateral payments system that eliminated the U.S. dollar as vehicle currency. I identify causal effects using a triple-difference design comparing exports across municipalities with varying bank access and across destinations to control for contemporaneous shocks including the financial crisis. Firm-level analysis finds that local currency adoption increased export values significantly, with effects concentrated among non-commodity exporters. These results demonstrate that foreign currency dependence constitutes a meaningful barrier to emerging market trade.