How do households react to a real cost shock? Evidence from the energy price crisis in Germany
利用2022年德国能源危机这一自然实验，研究发现家庭预期能源成本上升70%，但取暖行为调整短暂，而能源效率投资显著增加，成为主要应对策略。
The 2022 energy crisis caused gas prices to rise more sharply than those of other fossil fuels. This paper uses this natural experiment to examine how households adjusted their energy consumption and investment decisions in response to real cost shocks. We analyze both household intentions and actual behavior in the aftermath of the crisis. On average, households expected a 70 percent increase in energy costs on their next annual heating bill. While many initially planned to reduce their heat demand in response to higher expected costs, we find that this reduction was short-lived, with room thermostat settings returning to pre-crisis levels. In contrast, energy efficiency investments saw a significant increase, both in planning and implementation. This suggests that investing in home energy upgrades emerged as a major coping strategy for households.