Empirical evidence on the U.S. monetary–fiscal policy mix
用对弱工具变量和结构变化稳健的计量方法，重新审视美国货币财政政策组合，发现沃尔克之前是被动货币加被动财政体制，之后转为主动货币加被动财政体制，有助于理解通胀预期和财政纪律的变化。
This paper revisits the U.S. fiscal-monetary policy mix using econometric methods that are robust to weak identification and sensitive to structural changes. We find that the pre-Volcker period was predominantly characterised by a passive monetary-passive fiscal regime, consistent with indeterminacy and the presence of self-fulfilling inflationary expectations. In contrast, the post-Volcker period exhibits strong evidence of an active monetary-passive fiscal regime, reflecting greater inflation control and fiscal discipline. • Identify U.S. monetary–fiscal regimes using weak-IV robust GMM tests. • Pre-Volcker period characterised by passive monetary–passive fiscal policy. • Post-Volcker era exhibits active monetary–passive fiscal mix. • Evidence supports indeterminacy in the Great Inflation, determinacy after Volcker.