Impact of Doi Moi Agricultural Reforms on Vietnamese Crop Production
利用自然实验设计，评估越南革新改革对五种主要作物产量的影响，发现改革显著提升了至少四种作物的长期产量，但驱动因素因作物而异。
ABSTRACT This study uses a natural experiment design to evaluate the effects of the Doi Moi revolution in Vietnam on production outcomes for the country's five largest crops (rice, coffee, tea, cassava, and rubber). We test whether Doi Moi reforms had statistically measurable impacts on agricultural production using the synthetic control method (SCM). We find that economic reform led to substantial, long‐term increases in the production for at least four of these crops. However, the underlying drivers of these impacts appear to be crop‐specific. For tea, increases were concentrated on the intensive margin, with yields nearly 87% above counterfactual levels, while land area rose only modestly. By contrast, the dramatic expansion of coffee production was driven mainly by the extensive margin, with harvested area increasing by roughly 740%. Our findings underscore the transformative role that market‐oriented agricultural reforms can have in fostering agricultural production.