Why railways fail: Colonial railways and economic development in Habsburg Bosnia–Herzegovina
基于1885-1910年波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那4500多个定居点的普查数据，研究发现殖民铁路并未普遍促进经济发展，其影响取决于当地人力资本和法治等先决条件。
Are railways always a harbinger of prosperity? We examine the economic effects of railways in Bosnia–Herzegovina under Habsburg colonial rule. Our novel dataset consistently tracks the non-agricultural population share of over 4500 settlements in Habsburg Bosnia in 1885, 1895, and 1910, based on census records. Applying the inconsequential units approach, with least-cost paths as our instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of railway access on occupational change. In settlements directly connected to imperial railways and competition, non-agricultural activity declined as craftsmen returned to agriculture. By contrast, the new railway network temporarily accelerated non-agricultural activity, primarily by attracting factories and foreign labor. Railway access generated more sustained non-agricultural employment growth in settlements with higher human capital and stronger law enforcement. Overall, our findings suggest that colonial railways did not uniformly promote economic development: while railway access reshaped local occupational structures, lasting positive effects depended on local development preconditions.