Just Ask Them Twice: Choice Probabilities and Identification of Ex ante returns and Willingness-To-Pay
证明，通过最多两次概率陈述选择，就能在更弱假设下恢复事前回报和支付意愿的分布，从而缩短调查问卷，并用于科特迪瓦高能力学生对公共部门工作偏好的实证分析。
Abstract One of the exciting developments in the stated preference literature is the use of probabilistic stated preference experiments to estimate semi-parametric population distributions of ex ante returns and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a choice attribute. This relies on eliciting several choices per individual and estimating separate demand functions at the cost of possibly long survey instruments. This paper shows that the distributions of interest can be recovered from at most two stated choices with significantly weaker assumptions. Hence, it allows for significantly shorter survey instruments. The paper also shows that eliciting probabilistic stated choices allows identifying much richer objects than we have done so far, and therefore, provides better tools for ex ante policy evaluation. Finally, it showcases the feasibility and relevance of the results by studying the preferences of high ability students in Côte d’Ivoire for public sector jobs by exploiting a unique survey on this population. Our analysis supports the claim that public sector jobs might significantly increase the cost of hiring elite students for the private sector.