From brown to green? The displacement effect of coal-fired power plant closures in China
研究中国2004-2014年燃煤电厂关停和可再生能源发展如何导致空气污染向邻近活跃电厂转移，发现减少省际贸易壁垒和推广绿色能源可缓解此效应，对政策制定者和环境经济学家有参考价值。
This paper examines the displacement of air pollution after retiring coal-fired power plants, and market factors to reduce these displacement effects. We exploit the mass closures of coal-fired plants and simultaneous development of renewable energy in China from 2004 to 2014 as a quasi-natural experiment, combining geographic and operational information from more than 1500 power plants with high resolution satellite data measuring monthly sulphur dioxide ( ) levels. Our difference-in-difference estimates indicate that, while levels are 2.3% lower in areas surrounding closed coal-fired power plants, areas surrounding nearby active coal-fired ones suffer from 1.7% spike in . Reducing inter-provincial trade barriers and promoting greener alternative energy sources are evident to mitigate this displacement effect. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the two policy tools can decrease net annual emissions by 0.18 to 0.27 million tons, approximately 3.7 to 5.6 times of the baseline case without these interventions.