Governing higher education under demographic contraction: a dual-effect framework and international lessons
研究中国高等教育在人口下降趋势下的治理转型，通过量化预测和比较分析，提出区域联盟、使命契约和职业本科路径三种治理工具，帮助政策制定者应对生源减少与质量提升的双重挑战。
High-participation higher education in China is entering a demographic downswing that is challenging how systems grow, compete, and allocate resources. We employ a mixed-methods policy analysis that combines quantitative cohort and participation projections with system-level diagnosis and a structured comparative synthesis of international experience. We quantify trends in the 18–22-year-old population, gross enrollment rate (GER), and total enrollment, and develop a dual-effect framework to interpret how demographic contraction simultaneously constrains student supply and can create reform pressures. Our projections indicate that, after peaking around 2031, the 18–22-year-old population will decline by nearly half by 2050. Evidence across funding, graduate expansion, research intensity, and digital and continuing education provision indicates a shift from scale-driven growth to competition oriented toward quality and equity. A provincial pressure index shows the Northeast and interior resource belts under the greatest strain, while coastal megacity regions remain relatively resilient due to in-migration and institutional concentration. Drawing on Japan, South Korea, and Germany as comparative reference cases in the discussion, we translate these insights into three China-ready governance tools: (1) regional consortia with shared services and co-taught digital delivery; (2) mission-based compacts with calibrated provincial quotas; and (3) industry-anchored vocational–bachelor pathways. Reframing demographic decline from crisis to design problem, the study offers a set of conditional design options to sustain participation, raise quality, and improve regional balance under long-run contraction.