The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
研究了2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，石油禁运和价格上限对俄罗斯石油价格和出口的影响，发现禁运导致乌拉尔原油价格每桶折价32美元，其中近一半源于运输成本增加，剩余部分由印度议价能力增强解释，而价格上限影响甚微。
This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil prices and oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals export price in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted most of these exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power in the Urals market. We also provide a similar analysis for the ESPO price discount on exports to China. The price cap, in contrast, may have alleviated concerns about a possible disruption of Russian oil supplies from a broader ban on the use of Western maritime services, but its effect on Russian oil export prices in March 2023 was negligible.