Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System
构建了一个包含海表温度、海洋热含量、北极海冰范围和海平面变化等关键气候变量的协整向量均衡修正模型，由温室气体人为排放产生的辐射强迫驱动，预测平衡气候敏感度为2.6°C，并给出到2100年的预估。
ABSTRACT A cointegrated vector equilibrium correction model of key climate variables including sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, Arctic sea‐ice extent and sea‐level change is built, driven by radiative forcing in which a stochastic trend arises due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. A valid and congruent statistical model requires saturation estimation to model breaks in trends, while also conditioning on natural radiative forcings and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The model is stable over 150 years, reflecting the slow adjustment of the deep oceans to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and predicts an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6°C. Projections out to 2100 highlight the many uncertainties over the coming decades.