Bitcoin and the hospitality balance sheet: Allocation thresholds from Monte Carlo VaR analysis
通过蒙特卡洛模拟评估酒店企业将比特币纳入财务库房组合的可行性，发现适度配置（≤10%）能提升预期价值且风险可控，而高配置则增加波动性。
This study evaluates the financial viability of integrating Bitcoin into the corporate treasury portfolios of hospitality firms, inspired by MicroStrategy’s high-profile cryptocurrency strategy. Drawing on industry-average financial data from Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, and Hyatt Hotels Corporation, the research applies Monte Carlo simulation to model four treasury allocation scenarios, including 0 %, 5 %, 10 %, and 20 % Bitcoin exposure, over a one-year horizon. Historical Bitcoin return and volatility data from 2020 to 2024 inform the simulation parameters, enabling the estimation of mean treasury value, risk dispersion, and Value at Risk (VaR) at 95 % and 99 % confidence levels. Results indicate that modest allocations (≤10 %) enhance expected treasury value while maintaining manageable downside risk, whereas higher allocations substantially increase volatility without delivering proportional gains. These findings suggest that Bitcoin can serve as a complementary treasury asset for large hospitality firms, offering limited diversification benefits but requiring robust risk governance to ensure liquidity and operational stability. This research contributes to hospitality finance literature by introducing a simulation-based framework to assess cryptocurrency adoption within corporate treasury management strategies. • Monte Carlo simulation evaluates Bitcoin as a hospitality treasury asset. • Moderate Bitcoin allocations enhance value with manageable downside risk. • First empirical study linking Bitcoin strategy to hospitality finance decisions.