Which discoveries are paradigm shifting?
提出一个综合测度，将发现的影响力、新颖性和颠覆性整合为单一指标，并用美国专利数据验证其对范式转变发现的预测能力。
Abstract To more closely align theories of paradigm-shifting discoveries and their empirical quantification, we propose a novel measure that incorporates a discovery’s impact, novelty, and tendency to break with the past into a single, coherent measure. Calibration using the National Inventor Hall of Fame data reveals that the three dimensions are strict complements, meaning, for example, that greater impact cannot substitute for moderate novelty. We illustrate how the measure works and validate it in several complementary ways using data on the United States Patent and Trademark Office patents from 1982 to 2015. High values of the measure are strongly predictive of discoveries that are simultaneously exceptional in terms of their impact, novelty, and disruptiveness.