How contagious are health shocks on political outcomes? Evidence from the 1918 Spanish flu in Germany
研究了1918年西班牙流感在德国造成的死亡率差异，发现医院基础设施充足的地区死亡率低且无政治后果，而基础设施差的农村地区死亡率高，选民在下次选举中惩罚了执政党。
Do large health shocks spill over into politics, and can public infrastructure mitigate such contagion? We examine the long-term political effects of serious health emergencies and the moderating role of hospital infrastructure. During the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, four out of every 1000 Germans died. We find that influenza mortality rates were lower and did not have political consequences in cities and in rural areas with adequate hospital infrastructure. In contrast, rural areas with low levels of hospital infrastructure had higher influenza mortality rates, and voters punished the governing parties in the next elections. We conclude that adequate public infrastructure can help build resilience against large external shocks.