Approaching the future: Blueprinting and Wayfinding in corporate foresight enactment
通过20个月的实地研究，发现企业在技术驱动转型中采用两种前瞻实践模式：蓝图制定（应对状态不确定性，理性规划预览未来）和路径探索（应对效果与响应不确定性，经验学习预见未来）。
Corporate foresight has predominantly been conceptualized as an organizational capability, especially in the context of organizational transformation. Therefore, it is viewed as something that firms either have or do not have rather than as something people do. Consequently, the literature on corporate foresight contains surprisingly little insights about how such corporate foresight is enacted by people within organizations through distinct “future-making” practices. So how do organizations undergoing technology driven transformation enact corporate foresight using distinct “future-making” practices? Our paper addresses this question by undertaking a twenty-month long field study on corporate foresight enactment using scenario planning at ProRail B.V. We find two novel and distinct modes of corporate foresight enactment that we call blueprinting and wayfinding . Blueprinting is a response to ‘state’ uncertainty. It is characterised by rational planning, belief encoding, forward-looking cognitive-based choice processes and pre-conception that allow participants to preview the future. Wayfinding , by contrast, is a response to ‘effect’ and ‘response’ uncertainty. It involves bounded rational muddling, belief updating, feedback based experiential processes and anticipation that allow participants to foresee the future. Blueprinting and Wayfinding are therefore two distinct modes of “future-making” practices for corporate foresight enactment within organizational transformation. • Corporate Foresight is an ongoing accomplishment enacted by people within organizations using “future-making” practices. • State , effect and response uncertainty in transformation drive two CF modes: ‘ blueprinting ’ and ‘ wayfinding ’. • Blueprinting counters state uncertainty via rational planning and belief encoding to preview the future. • Wayfinding , counters effect and response uncertainties via belief updating and experiential feedback to foresee the future. • Our novel process model demonstrates blueprinting and wayfinding in action during organizational transformation.