Foreign interventions and community cohesion in times of conflict
利用阿富汗军事基地位置和反叛乱援助的独特数据，研究发现国际安全援助部队的存在削弱了社区凝聚力，表现为社区支持、机构参与和信任度下降，且这一效应与安全恶化及对地方机构信心降低有关。
The success of foreign interventions critically depends on cohesion within local communities, which serve as relevant partners in counterinsurgency and reconstruction efforts. Using unique data on military base locations and counterinsurgency aid in Afghanistan, I show that the presence of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) negatively affects social cohesion, measured by support within communities, engagement with community institutions, and trust. I leverage a geographic regression discontinuity design to estimate effects of ISAF’s geographic mandate enlargement, complemented by a panel analysis that covers its operational intensification. These findings do not appear to reflect crowding-out of informal institutions by formal provision; rather, they coincide with higher insecurity and reduced confidence in local institutions, offering a plausible explanation for the observed erosion of community cohesion. These findings carry important implications for foreign policy, particularly in settings where communities compensate for gaps in formal institutional provision.