A probabilistic vulnerability model for vertical process equipment in flood-induced Natech scenarios
针对洪水条件下垂直圆柱容器，提出一个基于概率的脆弱性模型，用于评估泄漏和灾难性释放的概率，帮助早期设计或数据有限场景下的风险识别。
Natural hazards increasingly threaten the safety of chemical and process plants, especially under the ongoing effects of climate change. Although awareness of Natech scenarios has grown, vulnerability models for vertical process equipment exposed to flood conditions remain sparsely addressed in the literature. In the present study a quantitative approach was developed to assess the probability of loss of containment from vertical cylindrical vessels supported by skirt and exposed to floodwater loads. A vulnerability model for equipment damage probability, addressing both leakage and catastrophic release scenarios is proposed. The model integrates vessel geometry and probabilistic material resistance into Probit-based vulnerability curves. It introduces simplified correlations for geometric parameters and load conditions to ensure its applicability also in early design phases or in data-limited contexts, as in the case of legacy equipment. The model was applied to a test bed of equipment items to demonstrate its ability in identifying critical components, evaluating the failure probabilities, and supporting flood risk assessment according to climate-resilient safety strategies.