Rain or shine, default risks align: exploring the climate-default nexus in small and micro firms
研究了2005-2014年六个欧洲国家气温升高和强降雨对小微企业违约概率的影响，发现气温和降雨量增加会显著提高违约风险，劳动生产力损失是重要传导渠道，而所有者兼任管理者可缓解不利影响。
We investigate the impact of escalating temperatures and heavy rainfall on the default probability of small and micro enterprises (SMiEs) in six European countries between 2005 and 2014. Our findings reveal that a one standard deviation increase (2.56∘C) in the yearly mean temperature raises a firm's default probability by 86.5 basis points. Additionally, a one standard deviation increase (2.46 mm) in the Simple Precipitation Intensity Index increases the default probability by 32.4 basis points. We argue that one channel explaining the adverse impact of climate risk on default probability is labour productivity loss. In addition, micro and financially constrained firms exhibit increased vulnerability to these risks. However, when the ultimate owners also serve as the firms' managers, they can mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures and heavy rainfall.