From mines to markets: Gravity model insights on critical raw material trade
研究OECD国家如何利用贸易援助、双边投资条约和特惠贸易协定影响从发展中国家进口关键原材料，发现南北特惠贸易协定虽在全球均衡中经济效应微小，但在市场进入和供应链布局中起战略作用。
Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly shaped by geopolitical dynamics, sparking a global competition for supply security. Using the gravity model of trade, we examine how OECD countries leverage Aid for Trade (AfT), Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), and Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) to influence CRM imports from developing countries. Panel data from 1995-2023 show that while intensive-margin effects of North-South PTAs appear economically negligible in the global trade equilibrium, these agreements play a strategic role in facilitating market entry and shaping supply-chain geography. Our results underscore that a coordinated mix of trade diplomacy, investment frameworks, and targeted aid is key to resilient and diversified CRM access for OECD countries.