Prudence in project handover: a multi-method exploration of risk readiness capability interdependence in predicting successful handover of major infrastructure projects
基于审慎理论，研究了风险准备能力因素间的相互依赖关系对重大基础设施项目成功移交的预测作用，发现前瞻性比监督性更能预测移交成功。
Drawing on a nuanced perspective of prudence theory, we examine the interdependence among risk readiness capability factors in predicting the successful handover of major infrastructure projects We first apply ISM–MICMAC analysis to identify key risk readiness sub-factors explaining handover failures. Next, Structural equation modelling is employed to explore the underlying structure of the interdependencies of these risk readiness sub-factors reframed within temporal dimensions of ‘foresight’and ‘oversight’. The analysis shows marked differences in comparative factor importance, with ‘foresight’ showing strong dominance over ‘oversight’. Finally, using Artificial Neural Networks, we test the predictive validity of the identified readiness structure by assessing its ability to predict successful handover, measured in terms of ‘timeliness’ and ‘functionality’. Results show that while both ‘foresight’ and ‘oversight’ predict handover success, ‘foresight’ emerged as the stronger predictor. The study’s originality lies in integrating prudence theory and risk readiness literature to theorise the frameworks guiding project-to-operations handover.