Intelligent Manufacturing, Industrial Agglomeration, and Green and Low‐Carbon Development: A Nonlinear Path Test Based on the Theory of Ecological Modernization
基于中国区域面板数据，从碳减排、污染治理、生态扩容和增长四个维度衡量制造业绿色低碳发展，发现智能制造通过绿色技术创新显著促进绿色低碳转型，且产业集聚超过一定阈值后会产生非线性跃升效应。
ABSTRACT Drawing upon ecological modernization theory as the analytical framework, this study employs macro‐level longitudinal tracking data covering China's major regions as research samples. It measures the green and low‐carbon development (GLCD) of manufacturing from the four dimensions—“ carbon reduction, pollution mitigation, ecological expansion , and growth ”—systematically investigating the mechanisms, boundary conditions, and nonlinear characteristics through which intelligent manufacturing drives green and low‐carbon manufacturing development. The empirical findings demonstrate that intelligent manufacturing significantly promotes GLCD in the manufacturing sector, a conclusion that remains robust across various tests including alternative dependent variable specifications and endogeneity treatments. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this promotional effect is more pronounced in regions with moderate resource endowments and higher marketization levels. Mechanism analysis further identifies green technological innovation as the pivotal pathway through which intelligent manufacturing enables green and low‐carbon transformation. Concurrently, industrial agglomeration exerts a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between intelligent manufacturing and green and low‐carbon development. Notably, once a specific agglomeration threshold is exceeded, intelligent manufacturing nonlinearly drives a quantum leap in environmental performance. These findings enrich the explanatory power of ecological modernization theory in the digital economy era, provide mechanistic insights for advancing the high‐quality green transformation of the manufacturing sector, and offer policy recommendations and empirical evidence for China's achievement of “ dual carbon ” targets. Additionally, they furnish valuable references for the synergistic pathway between intelligent manufacturing and green development in emerging economies.