The future of digitally enabled circular strategies in manufacturing: A Delphi study
通过德尔菲研究预测到2035年数字化赋能循环策略在制造业中的主流演进，发现早期进展依赖双元循环性，战略转折点需要数字创新与循环意图对齐，最终生态系统可应对系统性变革。
The implementation of circular strategies in manufacturing companies can decouple value creation from resource use by improving product utilization, extending product lifetimes, and closing material flows. Digital technologies are discussed as key enablers of circular strategies, yet uncertainty regarding their future developments inhibits large-scale implementation. To address this gap, we conducted a real-time online Delphi study to empirically forecast the mainstream evolution of digitally enabled circular strategies in circular manufacturing ecosystems by 2035. We developed eleven future projections, which were evaluated by 102 circularity and digital technology experts regarding their expected probability of occurrence, economic gains, and positive ecological impact. The findings reveal a staged transformation. We show that early progress depends on what we term ambidextrous circularity, where manufacturers and ecosystems balance exploiting existing strengths while exploring more transformative digitally enabled circular strategies. Beyond this entry stage, a strategic inflection point requires explicit alignment between digital innovation and circular intent, tempering the assumed environmental superiority of higher-order R-strategies. Finally, ecosystems can tackle systemic change. In this context, we propose a service-dominant logic of value creation in circular ecosystem research, positioning the consumer at the heart of this process as co-creators with producers.