A Tale of Two Cities: Australian Evidence on the Effects of Lockdown on Grocery Inflation
利用墨尔本独有封锁的澳大利亚情境，分析超市价格数据，发现封锁对食品杂货价格有显著的通缩效应，而其他防疫措施影响甚微。
ABSTRACT Despite extensive research on the economic implications of COVID‐19, the inflationary consequences of lockdown remain underexplored. Prior impact assessments may be compromised due to the cross‐jurisdictional presence of lockdowns and the prevalence of the coronavirus. This study leverages a unique circumstance in Australia, where Melbourne was the only city under lockdown, to discern the impact of lockdown. By analysing granular supermarket price data and adjusting for intertemporal and geographical variation in COVID‐19 cases, policy stringency, and product availability, the study identifies a statistically significant and economically meaningful disinflationary effect on grocery prices attributable to lockdown. Excluding the specific disinflationary effect of lockdown, COVID‐19‐related stringency measures have a minimal impact on the prices of typical consumables such as food.