Predicting Audit Qualifications with Financial and Market Variables.
研究如何用公开的财务和市场变量预测审计师是否出具带强调事项段的审计报告，构建了概率模型并评估其预测准确性，对审计实务和投资者决策有参考价值。
Abstract ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the extent to which models based on financial and market variables predict auditors' decisions to issue qualified audit reports in situations involving contingencies or uncertainties. A probit model is developed with the dependent variable indicating whether the firm received a qualified opinion, and the independent variables representing publicly available financial and market variables. The estimated model distinguishes between unqualified (clean) opinions and first-time qualifications and between types of qualifications (e.g., going concern, litigation, asset realizing, and multiple qualifications) in the year of the qualification, for both an estimation sample and a holdout sample. The predictive accuracy of the estimated model is evaluated in terms of misclassification costs for alternative costs of type I and type II errors and for specific prior probabilities of qualified and clean opinions.