An Assessment of the Relation Between Analysts' Earnings Forecast Accuracy, Motivational Incentives and Cognitive Information Search Strategy.
通过眼动追踪实验，发现准确的分析师采用定向信息搜索策略，而较不准确的采用顺序搜索；动机激励会加剧分析师发布乐观盈利预测的倾向。
Abstract Prior research indicates that analysts' forecasts of earnings tend to be optimistic. Analysts' optimism may be attributed to experience, cognitive information search strategies, motivational incentives or some combination thereof. In this study, we conduct an experiment that uses a computerized eye-movement retinal imaging system to capture the cognitive search strategy of 60 professional financial analysts. We find that, within the experiment, more accurate analysts employ a directive information search strategy, whereas less accurate analysts employ a sequential search strategy. Experimental results also indicate that motivational incentives intensify the analysts' tendency to provide optimistic earnings forecasts. We also conduct an examination of the analysts' predictive accuracy outside the experimental setting. We find a significant relation between historical accuracy and the analysts' cognitive search strategy observed in the experiment. Post-experiment survey results provide insight into the linkage between specific accounting information used by the analysts and the accuracy of their forecasts.