Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment in EMDEs : Nonlinear Effects of the Business Cycle, Fiscal Space, Capital Stock and Efficiency
研究了1980-2019年129个新兴市场和发展中经济体的数据，发现公共投资能显著促进经济增长、带动私人投资并提高生产率，尤其在财政空间充足、投资效率高或经济衰退时效果更强。
ABSTRACT The paper examines the macroeconomic effects of public investment in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). To this end the analysis develops a new measure of public investment shocks based on cyclically adjusted government investment. Estimations using local projections based on a sample of 129 countries over the period 1980–2019 suggest that public investment can significantly boost economic growth, crowd in private investment, and increase productivity and potential output. Estimates suggest that an increase in public investment by 1% of GDP raises real output by 1.1% after 5 years, on average. However, the effects are much larger when public investment spending is efficient and fiscal space is ample—reaching up to 1.6% over the same period. Public investment multipliers tend to be larger during recessions and in capital scarce economies.