Bond Raters' Use of Management Financial Forecasters: Experiment in Expert Judgment.
通过实验发现，债券评级人员对管理层预测的细微差异高度敏感，预测数据会改变他们的评级评估，表明他们通过信息暴露和反馈形成了专业知识结构。
Abstract ABSTRACT: Bond raters are unique in their exposure to management forecasts. They regularly review ratees' confidential forecasts for new and ongoing bond issues. This study gives evidence that bond raters have developed great sensitivity to subtle differences in forecasts-supporting the inferences that forecasts are used in the rating process and that the rating environment fosters expertise development. In experiments which measured responses to confirming and disconfirming evidence (in the form of various forecast trends), bond raters changed their evaluations of ratees when forecast data were introduced. These results are consistent with bond raters having developed sharply defined knowledge structures (schemata) through their information exposure, feedback, and reward systems. In addition, bond raters demonstrated the other expertise attributes of high levels of consensus and confidence.