An Examination of the Linear and Retrospective Process Tracing Approaches to Judgment Modeling.
比较线性模型与回顾性过程追踪在判断预测中的有效性，发现两者均有效但回顾性过程追踪更能复现实际判断，且两种方法对线索重要性的测量具有收敛效度。
Abstract ABSTRACT: Linear model and retrospective process tracing methods of judgment modeling are compared in terms of predictive validity and convergence between measures of cue importance, in addition, the reliability of the linear model is examined. The experimental task required each of 31 subjects to provide either a buy or no-buy decision for 45 stocks (each described by six information cues). For each subject, a linear model was estimated and a retrospective process tracing model was generated by reference to post-experimental verbal reports. The results indicated that (1) each approach exhibited predictive validity, but the retrospective process tracings exhibited a superior ability to replicate the observed judgments, (2) linear model and retrospective process tracing measures of cue importance were related (exhibited convergent validity), and (3) the linear models were generally reliable.