More Correlations Signal Causation: The Effect of Correlational Scope on Perceived Causality
研究发现，当某个可能的原因与更多结果相关时，人们更倾向于认为该相关反映因果关系，但这一效应在额外结果与焦点结果关联弱或原因后置时减弱，并影响产品选择。
Abstract In the era of big data, an increasing amount of information is becoming available to business analysts and scientists. Statistical correlations between consumption patterns and individual conditions (e.g., health conditions) are frequently uncovered and reported in the media. However, many correlations are spurious, prompting the question of when consumers perceive them as reflecting causal relationships. Across eight preregistered studies, a correlation (e.g., between drinking tea and bone health) is perceived as more likely to reflect a causal relationship (i.e., drinking tea makes bones healthier) when the plausible cause reportedly correlates with additional outcomes (e.g., heart conditions). The correlational scope effect is attenuated when the additional outcomes are perceived as weakly related to the focal outcome, mitigated under a cause-last framing (in which the plausible cause in a correlation is presented after the target outcome), and can influence product choices. Category-based induction may contribute to the correlational scope effect: perceived susceptibility to a cause is projected from additional outcomes onto the focal outcome. These findings have implications for understanding causal judgment and for consumers’ well-being.