Toward a Positive Theory of Information Evaluation.
通过实验检验了信息评价的规范模型，发现信息评价者的实际行为与模型预测不符，其行为最好由先验、准确性和决策者类型的乘法组合来描述。
Abstract This research tests a normative model of information evaluation as a descriptive representation of information evaluator (IE) behavior in judging the value of alternative information systems. The criterion of predictive ability was the principal basis for performing this test. Several methodological and design features were introduced which permitted a more rigorous test than was possible in previous studies, IEs specified the amount that they would pay for an information system consisting of a single marble drawn from one of two urns containing many black and white marbles. The sample result was provided to a decision maker who decided from which urn the marble was drawn. Five levels of priors, information system accuracy, and three types of decisionmaker models were experimentally manipulated. The results were inconsistent with the predictions of the normative model. Among the alternative representations we tested, IE behavior was best represented by a multiplicative composition of priors, accuracy, and type of decision maker.