US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle
研究了六种美国宏观经济冲击对国际商业周期的影响，发现这些冲击显著促进了美国与其他经济体的周期同步，并解释了21国产出波动的相当部分，其中技术和金融冲击的溢出效应最强。
This study investigates the influence of six distinct shocks originating in the US on the international business cycle. To this end, it utilizes impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions from panel local projections. We find that key US macroeconomic shocks contribute significantly to business cycle synchronization between the US and other economies. These shocks also explain a considerable share of output fluctuations in the panel of twenty-one countries. Investigating the spillovers of US innovations in subsamples, we document that their effects are particularly strong in Emerging Market Economies, key US trading partners, and countries with close financial linkages to the US. Among the individual shocks, technology and financial shocks are the most important drivers of the spillovers.