过度自信与Brock-Hommes资产定价模型中的市场不稳定性

Overconfidence and market instability in a Brock–Hommes asset pricing model

Economics Letters · 2026
被引 0 · 同刊同年前 7%
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究了过度自信如何通过影响趋势跟踪交易者的风险感知,缩小基本均衡的稳定区域并引发内生波动,从而放大市场波动和错误定价。

Abstract

We study the effect of overconfidence on price dynamics in a Brock-Hommes asset pricing model.Overconfidence is modeled as a misperception of risk affecting trend-following traders.We show that this mechanism shrinks the stability region of the fundamental equilibrium and induces endogenous oscillations.A bifurcation analysis and stochastic simulations illustrate how overconfidence amplifies volatility and mispricing.

资产定价行为金融市场稳定性过度自信