Overconfidence and market instability in a Brock–Hommes asset pricing model
研究了过度自信如何通过影响趋势跟踪交易者的风险感知,缩小基本均衡的稳定区域并引发内生波动,从而放大市场波动和错误定价。
We study the effect of overconfidence on price dynamics in a Brock-Hommes asset pricing model.Overconfidence is modeled as a misperception of risk affecting trend-following traders.We show that this mechanism shrinks the stability region of the fundamental equilibrium and induces endogenous oscillations.A bifurcation analysis and stochastic simulations illustrate how overconfidence amplifies volatility and mispricing.