What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany
利用对德国阿富汗寻求庇护者的独特调查数据，描述了他们关于居留结果的信念与逾期居留意向，并评估了逾期居留的预期收益、合法化及遣返的期权价值，否定了自愿遣返政策的成本效益论点。
Abstract The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.