True Cost of War: The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine
提出一种利用冲突前人口迁移偏好和冲突后部分迁移数据，估算冲突造成福利损失下限的新方法，应用于2014-2019年乌克兰东部冲突，发现顿涅茨克居民福利损失相当于终身收入的8%-32%。
Abstract This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. Results for the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 show a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to 8–32 percent of lifetime income depending on agents’ time preference and risk aversion parameters.