It will rain: The effect of information on flood preparedness in urban Mozambique
通过在莫桑比克300个城市社区进行随机实验，发现提供洪水风险信息能显著增加居民采取减灾措施的行为，且短信干预效果不亚于更昂贵的家访和视频干预。
Floods are among the costliest and most recurring natural hazards. Many governments provide disaster preparedness information, but there is limited evidence of its effectiveness. Using a randomized experiment across 300 urban communities in Mozambique, I show that providing information on flood risk increased the implementation of suggested mitigation strategies, measured objectively (using a machine learning-based algorithm to detect solid waste, a major flood hazard, in over 25,000 photos) and through self-reported behaviors. Sending flood preparedness text messages proved to be at least as effective as more resource-intensive interventions that involved household visits and video screenings. Risk perception increased, particularly in lower-risk areas, suggesting that information and past experiences contribute to community preparedness by shaping perceived flood risk. These findings highlight the importance of communication in mobilizing communities for disaster risk management, even in contexts where flood risks are presumably already well-known, and underscore the potential of low-cost, scalable communication tools.