Mode choice for leisure travel in Europe: Simulating future transport policies
通过瑞士旅行者的偏好实验，评估航空税、夜火车补贴等四种政策对休闲出行方式选择、福利和外部成本的影响，发现补贴夜火车、航空税和2030年情景能提升福利，而6%的可持续航空燃料强制要求则降低福利。
The European travel sector is experiencing a transformation driven by increased climate awareness and policy measures aimed at reducing external costs such as emissions. This study examines how Swiss travelers respond to these developments, using a stated preference experiment including the modes of train, night train, car, and airplane. Employing nested logit models, we find a significant willingness-to-pay for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) of CHF 94 per ton of CO 2 e. Based on the estimated coefficients, we evaluate the impacts of four policy scenarios: an aviation tax (CHF 30), a night train subsidy (CHF 20), a SAF blending quota, and a market outlook for 2030. These scenarios are benchmarked against the first-best Pigovian tax on transport externalities. Assessing demand shifts, consumer surplus, and external costs, we find that subsidizing night train prices, the aviation tax, and the 2030 scenario increase welfare, whereas a 6% SAF mandate reduces it.