Improving the Credibility of Corporate Sustainability Metrics
指出两种不确定性（效果不确定性和测量不确定性）影响可持续性指标的可信度，并提出一个以可信度为中心的路线图，帮助管理者诊断不确定性、选择合适指标、减少不确定性、透明沟通并适时暂停量化披露，以碳抵消为例说明如何避免误导利益相关者。
Firms face growing pressure to measure and disclose their sustainability performance, yet credible sustainability metrics remain scarce because sustainability initiatives often operate under significant uncertainty. We argue that two forms of uncertainty—(1) “effect uncertainty” (whether an initiative produces its intended outcome) and (2) “measurement uncertainty” (the accuracy and stability of quantification)—fundamentally shape the credibility of sustainability metrics. We introduce a credibility-centered roadmap that helps managers diagnose these uncertainties, select metrics that fit the informational context, reduce uncertainty where feasible, communicate remaining uncertainty transparently, and pause quantitative disclosure when precision cannot be responsibly claimed. The roadmap recognizes that credibility depends on aligning disclosure with what can be responsibly known rather than choosing the “right” metric in the abstract. Using carbon offsets as an illustrative domain where both uncertainties are exceptionally high, we demonstrate how misaligned metrics can unintentionally mislead stakeholders and why process metrics, qualified outcomes, or strategic silence may be more credible than precise quantitative claims. By adopting this structured approach, organizations can design sustainability metrics that more accurately reflect what can be known, avoid overstating confidence, and strengthen stakeholder trust.