时间压力减少金融泡沫:来自预测实验的证据

Time pressure reduces financial bubbles: evidence from a forecasting experiment

Experimental Economics · 2025
被引 0
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

实验发现,时间压力促使参与者采用更简单的适应性预测策略,从而降低价格波动、减少泡沫,而低时间压力下自我强化的外推预期则易催生泡沫。

Abstract

Abstract We investigate whether time pressure exacerbates or mitigates bubbles in laboratory experiments. We find that under high time pressure price volatility is lower and market prices are closer to their fundamental value. This is due to participants using simpler adaptive forecasting strategies, instead of the self-reinforcing extrapolative expectations that they use under low time pressure, and which are conducive to the emergence of bubbles. In addition, by substantially increasing the number of decision periods in our experiment, we find that in the long run prices tend to converge to their fundamental value, also in the absence of time pressure.

时间压力金融泡沫预测实验自适应策略