Rising Tides, Falling Harvests: Examining the Effects of Salinity Intrusion on Paddy Production in Vietnam's Mekong Delta
利用2000-2020年越南湄公河三角洲的区级面板数据，研究盐分入侵对冬春水稻产量和种植面积的影响，发现极端盐分事件比年度波动对面积调整的影响更持久，并分析了农民适应策略的空间异质性。
ABSTRACT Rising sea levels and salinity intrusion increasingly threaten rice farming in Vietnam's Mekong Delta. Using a district‐level panel dataset from 2000 to 2020, this study examines the impacts of salinity on Winter–Spring rice yields and acreage and how farmers adapt to salinity risk. A Nerlovian adaptive expectations model is applied to assess how past exposure influences land‐use decisions. Results show that extreme salinity events exert a stronger and more persistent effect on acreage adjustments than year‐to‐year fluctuations, with reductions most pronounced in salinity‐prone and coastal districts. Spatial heterogeneity underscores the need for location‐specific strategies: infrastructure and salt‐tolerant varieties for inland areas, and support for transitions to alternative land uses in highly exposed regions. Evidence of complementarities between rice and aquaculture suggests integrated systems can sustain production under moderate salinity pressure. These findings highlight the importance of tailored interventions to enhance resilience as salinity intrusion intensifies with sea‐level rise.