Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
研究在新凯恩斯模型中，将错误设定的预测规则与短视行为结合形成预期，发现这种组合能解释通胀预测的滞后超调等特征，且估计模型与调查数据吻合。
I consider a New Keynesian framework where agents combine mis-specified forecasts and myopia to form expectations. This combination is consistent with inflation forecasts' late overshooting, underreaction to forecast revisions, and overreaction to current inflation. Estimating the general equilibrium model on macroeconomic data shows that: (i) data favor combining autoregressive mis-specified forecasting rules with myopia over other alternatives; (ii) learning of mis-specified rules improves model fit; and (iii) mis-specified forecasts generate substantial internal persistence and amplification to exogenous shocks. Inflation expectations simulated from the best-fitting model closely match survey data, providing external validation for the proposed expectations formation process.