Optimism about Graduation and College Financial Aid
研究美国大学生对毕业可能性的乐观信念如何影响入学决策，并分析联邦学生贷款对低技能、贫困且乐观的年轻人的福利影响。
In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical evidence that beliefs about the likelihood of earning a bachelor's degree predict college enrollment, and that the distribution of these beliefs exhibits widespread optimism. We incorporate this distribution of beliefs into an overlapping generations model with college as a risky investment that can be financed via federal loans, grants, family transfers, or earnings. We then examine the welfare impact of access to federal student loans. We find that access can reduce welfare for young adults who are low-skilled, poor, and optimistic, due to their mistaken beliefs.